MENACODEX BetaEconomic intelligence for the MENA region

Countries / Levant / Iraq

Iraq

Upper-middle income  ·  Hydrocarbon exporter  ·  Data availability: partial

OPEC’s second-largest producer, with oil delivering over 90% of state revenue — one of the most oil-dependent economies on earth. Reconstruction needs, a large public payroll, and dependence on food and energy imports define its fiscal picture.

Alerts · what moved recentlyAll signals →
Policy reform

The Central Bank updated suspicious-transaction scenarios for anti-money-laundering controls

Oct 21, 2026 · Central Bank of Iraq

Vitals

Core figures — the latest value each source holds, the previous reading and the bloc median.

GDP
$254.4B
as of 2025
down from $279.6B (2024)
Mashreq median $61.6B
Real GDP growth
-2.2%
as of 2025
down from -1.5% (2024)
Mashreq median 4.3%
Inflation, year-on-year
1.5%
as of Jul 2026
down from 3.1% (Jun 2026)
Mashreq median 14.9%
GDP per person
$5,410
as of 2025
down from $6,074 (2024)
Mashreq median $3,171

Dimmed cards hold figures more than a year old. All of this country's data in the Database →

Quarterly report

Written once from the quarter's findings, then frozen.

All reports →
Q3 2026 · Iraq

IRQ — Q3 2026 brief

The findings published for Iraq in Q3 2026 recorded three straight months of falling foreign reserves. Reserves fell from $74.7 billion in March 2026 to $64.4 billion in June 2026, a decline of 14%.

Read the full report
Editions
Q3 2026→
All publications

Signals & patterns

Everything MENACodex detects for this economy — the lead finding charted, the rest filtered by pattern and sector.

Trend · Economy & growth

Iraq's GDP per person employed at constant prices has fallen for 3 straight years, from 61,343 in 2022 to 54,291 in 2025: down 11%.

GDP per person employed (constant 2021 PPP $) (PPP $)54k
50k55k60k65k70k75k201220182025

Source: World Bank — World Development Indicators · data through 2025

TrendGrowth in Iraq's household spending per person has risen for 4 straight years, from -7.57% in 2020 to 11.3% in 2024: up 19 points.

data through 2024

TrendIraq's government spending at constant prices have risen for 4 straight years, from $41 billion in 2020 to $57.1 billion in 2024: up 39%.

data through 2024

OutlierIraq's manufacturing, value added at constant prices reached $11.2 billion in 2025, about 115% above their 1990–2024 average of $5.2 billion. A gap that large has appeared only once in the past 36 years.

data through 2025

OutlierIraq's fixed telephone subscriptions reached 5.3 million in 2024, about 266% above its 1990–2023 average of 1.4 million. A gap that large has not appeared in the past 34 years.

data through 2024

TrendIraq's methane emissions from the power industry have risen for 10 straight years, from 57,300 tonnes of CO2e in 2014 to 132,500 in 2024: more than twice as high. The rise goes back to 2012.

data through 2024

Signal archive →

Agenda Watch

Official decisions and what the news is reporting, with the original source named.

DateDecisionTypeSource
Oct 21, 2026The Central Bank updated suspicious-transaction scenarios for anti-money-laundering controlsPolicy reformCentral Bank of Iraq (cbi.iq)
Oct 20, 2026The Central Bank said it kept financing imports and asked traders to track transfersFinancingCentral Bank of Iraq (cbi.iq)
Oct 19, 2026Iraq raised the financial stamp duty set out in the 2012 stamp lawPolicy reformOfficial Gazette of Iraq / Ministry of Justice (moj.gov.iq)
Oct 18, 2026The Central Bank of Iraq launched an electronic system to replace damaged currency.Policy reformCentral Bank of Iraq (cbi.iq)
Oct 15, 2026The Central Bank of Iraq issued new instructions setting travelers’ dollar allowance at $2,000 every two months.Policy reformCentral Bank of Iraq (cbi.iq)
Oct 10, 2026The Central Bank said traders with pending import remittances before 2026-10-07 should check execution and may file complaintsPolicy reformCentral Bank of Iraq (cbi.iq)
Oct 7, 2026The Central Bank set new official dollar selling and buying rates effective 2026-10-07Policy reformCentral Bank of Iraq (cbi.iq)
Oct 7, 2026Iraq cut the official dollar rate to 1,500 dinars and ended pre-collection of customs dutiesPolicy reformMinistry of Finance (mof.gov.iq)
Sep 17, 2026Iraq’s finance ministry completed the pre-collection mechanism for customs fees.Policy reformMinistry of Finance (mof.gov.iq)
Sep 13, 2026Iraq’s finance minister released 500 billion dinars for farmers’ dues.FinancingMinistry of Finance (mof.gov.iq)

Development plan

National Development Plan 2024–2028 · what the government promised, its own latest figures, and how far they have come.

Full plan, all 15 goals ↓

Economy

1 of the plan's goals
Non-oil share of GDP40.4%
39.7% at startTarget 42.6%

People

2 of the plan's goals
Unemployment rate13%
16.5% at startTarget 11.6%
Poverty rate17.5%
23.5% at startTarget 15%

Other goals

2 of the plan's goals
Natural gas production3,000 mmscf/d
3,000 mmscf/d at startTarget 4,250 mmscf/d
Peak electricity supply28,000 MW
27,000 MW at startTarget 47,358 MW
The full plan: every goal, the government's figures and the independent series beside them

Development plan

National Development Plan 2024–2028

Ministry of Planning · launched 2024, horizon 2028 · 15 measurable goals, 6 with a reported figure, 0 reached · plan document

Dated May 2024, launched 3 August 2024 under Iraq Vision 2030; the fourth five-year plan since 2010, prepared with UNDP support. Thirteen general objectives, five programmes, nine quantitative targets. The ministry published annual follow-up reports for the previous plan; none has appeared yet for this one.

Progress bars run from the baseline the plan now tracks to its current target. Government figures are as reported by the government; where an independent source measures the same thing, its figure is shown beside them.

  1. 1Real GDP growth-1.5% a year on average to 2024
    -1.5% (2024)4.24% by 2028
    As reported by the government
    2024: -1.5% (CSO-GDP24)
    Independent figure
    World Bank — World Development Indicators, GDP annual growth rate: -1.85% in 2025
    Check
    The independent figure agrees with the government's. In 2024: government -1.5%, independent -1.55%. Same series (World Bank uses the statistics office's constant-price GDP).
    Official status
    −1.5% in 2024 (crude oil −6.2%, non-oil +4.2%), Central Statistical Organization.
    Tracked as
    Real GDP growth
    As printed in the plan
    Achieve an economic growth rate of 4.24% over the plan years (4.25% in the English introduction) (NDP-SUM p.9; NDP-EN p.20, Table 1 p.51)
    Note
    Growth of GDP at constant 2007 prices; the target is an average over 2024–2028. The plan's own figure is printed as 4.24% and 4.25% in different places. Baseline: the first plan year's actual.
  2. 2Unemployment rate13% in 2025
    16.5% (2021)11.6% by 2028
    As reported by the government
    2024: 14% (RUDAW26, press report)2025: 13% (RUDAW26, press report)
    Independent figure
    World Bank — World Development Indicators, unemployment, total as a share of the total: 15.5% in 2025
    Check
    The independent series measures something close but not the same; shown for context, not as a check. In 2025: government 13%, independent 15.5%. ILO modelled estimate, anchored on the 2021 survey.
    Official status
    14% per a Ministry of Planning release in January 2025 and 13% per its spokesman in April 2026; neither cites a survey or reference year.
    Tracked as
    Unemployment rate
    As printed in the plan
    Reduce unemployment by no less than 30% from current rates (NDP-SUM p.9; NDP-EN p.37)
    Note
    Unemployment among people aged 15 and over (Labour Force Survey 2021: 16.5%). The plan states a relative cut of at least 30%; 11.55% is that cut applied to the 2021 rate.
  3. 3Poverty rate17.5% in 2024
    23.5% (2022)15% by 2028
    As reported by the government
    2024: 17.5% (ALARAB25, press report)
    Independent figure
    World Bank — World Development Indicators, poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines: 17.5% in 2023
    Check
    No year is reported by both. Same measure; the World Bank's last figure for Iraq is 2012 (18.9%).
    Official status
    17.5% in 2024 per the Ministry of Planning (economic and social survey with census data; 17.6% in an earlier release).
    Tracked as
    Poverty rate
    As printed in the plan
    Reduce poverty to no more than 15% nationally (NDP-SUM p.10)
    Note
    Share of the population below the national poverty line. The plan prints no baseline; the Ministry of Planning's 23–24% for 2022 is used (midpoint).
  4. 4Non-oil share of GDP40.4% in 2024
    39.7% (2022)42.6% by 2028
    As reported by the government
    2024: 40.4% (CSO-Q3-24)
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. No international series splits out non-oil GDP for Iraq.
    Official status
    40.4% over the first three quarters of 2024 (constant prices), Central Statistical Organization.
    Tracked as
    Non-oil share of GDP
    As printed in the plan
    Raise the share of non-oil activities from 39.7% in 2022 to 42.6% in 2028 (NDP-SUM p.11; NDP-EN p.50)
    Note
    Non-oil value added as a share of GDP at constant 2007 prices.
  5. 5Agriculture's share of GDPNo progress figure reported
    2.4% (2022)2.9% by 2028
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. World Bank agriculture share is at current prices; the plan's is at constant prices. Not comparable.
    Tracked as
    Agriculture's share of GDP
    As printed in the plan
    Increase the agricultural sector's contribution to GDP from 2.4% to 2.9% (NDP-SUM pp.10, 13)
    Note
    Agriculture value added as a share of GDP at constant 2007 prices (the World Bank's current-price share is about twice as high and not comparable).
  6. 6Manufacturing's share of GDPNo progress figure reported
    1.8% (2022)2.2% by 2028
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. World Bank manufacturing share is at current prices; not comparable.
    Tracked as
    Manufacturing's share of GDP
    As printed in the plan
    Increase manufacturing's contribution to GDP from 1.8% to 2.2% (NDP-SUM pp.10, 13)
    Note
    Manufacturing value added as a share of GDP at constant 2007 prices.
  7. 7Crude oil production capacityNo progress figure reported
    4.2 million b/d (2023)6.5 million b/d by 2028
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. OPEC and JODI report output, not capacity; shown for context only.
    Official status
    Actual output averaged about 4.19 million b/d in 2024 and 4.03 in 2025 (compiled from official data); no capacity figure has been published.
    Tracked as
    Crude oil production capacity
    As printed in the plan
    Crude oil production capacity from 4.2 to 6.5 million barrels a day (NDP-SUM pp.21–22)
    Note
    Production capacity, not actual output, which OPEC quotas hold below capacity (about 4.2 million b/d in 2024, 4.0 in 2025).
  8. 8Crude oil export capacityNo progress figure reported
    3.4 million b/d (2023)5.25 million b/d by 2028
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. JODI and SOMO report realised exports, not capacity.
    Official status
    Realised exports averaged 3.37 million b/d in 2024 (Ministry of Oil data) and about 3.4 in 2025; no capacity figure has been published.
    Tracked as
    Crude oil export capacity
    As printed in the plan
    Export capacity from 3.4 to 5.25 million barrels a day (NDP-SUM pp.21–22)
    Note
    Export capacity, not realised exports (3.47 million b/d in 2023, 3.37 in 2024).
  9. 9Refining capacityNo progress figure reported
    700 thousand b/d (2023)1250 thousand b/d by 2028
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin reports refining capacity; not in the catalogue.
    Tracked as
    Refining capacity
    As printed in the plan
    Refining capacity from 700 to 1,250 thousand barrels a day (NDP-SUM pp.21–22)
    Note
    Crude refining capacity.
  10. 10Natural gas production3000 mmscf/d in 2025
    3000 mmscf/d (2023)4250 mmscf/d by 2028
    As reported by the government
    2025: 3000 mmscf/d (SHAFAQ-GAS, press report)
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. JODI gas; not in the catalogue.
    Official status
    About 3,000 mmscf/d in May 2025 per the Ministry of Oil, of which about 2,000 captured.
    Tracked as
    Natural gas production
    As printed in the plan
    Gas production from 3,000 to 4,250 million standard cubic feet a day (NDP-SUM pp.21–22)
    Note
    Total natural gas production (associated and free).
  11. 11Free gas productionNo progress figure reported
    200 mmscf/d (2023)2000 mmscf/d by 2028
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. No international series.
    Tracked as
    Free gas production
    As printed in the plan
    Free (non-associated) gas from 200 to 2,000 million standard cubic feet a day (NDP-SUM pp.21–22)
    Note
    Non-associated gas supply.
  12. 12Peak electricity supply28000 MW in 2025
    27000 MW (2024)47358 MW by 2028
    As reported by the government
    2024: 27000 MW (IBN-ELEC24, press report)2025: 28000 MW (ATTAQA25, press report)
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. Installed capacity (EIA, IEA) is a different measure from peak supply.
    Official status
    Peak generation 27,000 MW in July 2024 and 28,000 MW in August 2025, both described as records.
    Tracked as
    Peak electricity supply
    As printed in the plan
    Peak load to be met: 47,358 MW by 2028 (NDP-SUM p.22)
    Note
    Peak generation the grid can supply. The plan prints no baseline; the Ministry of Electricity's 2024 record peak is used.
  13. 13Electricity bill collection rateNo progress figure reported
    85% (2024)96% by 2028
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. No international series.
    Tracked as
    Electricity bill collection rate
    As printed in the plan
    Collection rate from 85% to 96% (NDP-SUM p.22)
    Note
    Share of metered electricity paid for.
  14. 14Irrigation efficiencyNo progress figure reported
    39% (2022)53% by 2028
    Check
    No independent source measures this goal. No international series.
    Tracked as
    Irrigation efficiency
    As printed in the plan
    Total irrigation efficiency from 39% to 53% (NDP-SUM p.21)
    Note
    Overall irrigation efficiency (field, conveyance and distribution combined).
  15. 15GDP per personNo progress figure reported
    IQD 5,077 thousand (2022)IQD 5,392 thousand by 2028
    Independent figure
    World Bank — World Development Indicators, GDP per person at constant prices: $4,005.041 in 2025
    Check
    No year is reported by both. World Bank series is in constant US dollars; growth rates are comparable, levels are not.
    Tracked as
    GDP per person
    As printed in the plan
    Average per capita share of GDP from IQD 5,077 thousand to 5,392 thousand (constant prices) (NDP-EN p.52; NDP-SUM p.16)
    Note
    GDP per person at constant 2007 prices. The plan prints 5,392 in one table and 5,398 in another.

Explore the data

Every series we hold for Iraq, by sector — open one in the Database to chart it against its neighbours.

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Economy & growth

GDP, output, investment, savings · 234 series

Open indicators →Prices & money

Inflation, policy rate, money, exchange rate · 24 series

Open indicators →Trade & external

Exports, imports, reserves, current account · 52 series

Open indicators →Public finance

Revenue, spending, debt, balance · 50 series

Open indicators →Financial sector

Credit, banks, markets · 33 series

Open indicators →Energy & environment

Oil, gas, power, emissions · 91 series

Open indicators →Technology & infrastructure

Internet, mobile, transport · 34 series

Open indicators →People

Population, jobs, health, education · 44 series

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Ask about Iraq Coming soon

Answers only from MENACodex's data on Iraq, every claim linked to its source. The question box opens when the analyst is ready; these are examples of what it will answer.

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What has changed in Iraq recently?Signals, briefs and decisions, with their sources
What did last quarter add up to?Drawn from the quarterly report
What did the government decide this year?From the Agenda Watch record
How does Iraq compare with its neighbours?Any series against the bloc median