Oman seals £1bn AI data centre deal as imports hit a five-year high

Oman and the UK sealed a £1bn AI data centre deal in Salalah, Oman Observer reported on 24 October 2026. For Oman, the economic test is not the headline commitment but whether construction turns into a competitive export business. The most likely sequence is an investment lift first, an import bill alongside it, and export earnings later.

Capital spending has room to recover. Gross fixed capital formation stood at 25.54% of GDP in 2024, up from 24.28% of GDP in 2023. That was above its five-year low of 22.94% of GDP in 2022 but below the high of 31.57% of GDP in 2020. A project that proceeds through procurement and construction could push that investment share higher.

The external position makes the composition of spending important. Imports of goods and services reached 48.78% of GDP in 2024, their five-year high, against 44.86% of GDP in 2023 and a low of 42.49% of GDP in 2022. Oman nevertheless recorded a current-account surplus of US$3.1 billion in 2024, up from US$2.4 billion in 2023. The five-year range ran from US$-12.6 billion in 2020 to US$4.0 billion in 2022.

An equipment-intensive build could raise imports and put downward pressure on that surplus before overseas customers generate service receipts. Local construction, power provision and operating services could support domestic activity, but the deal’s value should not be mistaken for an equivalent addition to Omani output.

Growth accelerated to 2.40% in 2025 from 1.63% in 2024, still below the five-year high of 7.99% in 2022. The data centre could reinforce that recovery if financing closes, reliable power is secured and customers commit to using its capacity.

Watch capital formation and imports for the first signs of execution, then service exports and the current account for evidence of a durable return. Strong export receipts alongside the investment pickup would challenge the view that the early benefits are likely to be import-heavy; a completed facility without paying customers would undermine the economic case altogether.

Analysis by MENACodex. The reasons and effects discussed are our reading; every figure traces to official data.