Morocco’s reserves rise 18% year-on-year, widening its external buffer

Morocco’s reserves including gold have climbed persistently since January 2025, with occasional dips doing little to interrupt the advance. The build-up gives the authorities more room to manage external pressures, although a rising dollar valuation need not represent an equivalent inflow of fresh foreign currency.

The stock increased from $36.7 billion at the start of that climb to $53.2 billion in July 2026. That leaves it only about 0.7% below June’s record $53.6 billion. The latest retreat looks small beside the sustained upward trend.

Recurring external earnings are a plausible foundation. Tourism and remittances from Moroccans abroad bring foreign currency into the economy, alongside exports of cars, phosphates and fertilisers. Stronger receipts would help finance imports and could allow Bank Al-Maghrib to accumulate reserves. Foreign investment and government borrowing abroad could also lift the stock when proceeds enter the central bank’s accounts. But export and tourism receipts do not automatically become official reserves: import payments, other outward flows and central-bank currency operations determine how much stays there.

Valuation offers another explanation. A higher gold price raises the dollar value of existing bullion without any additional purchases. A weaker dollar similarly increases the reported value of assets held in euros and other currencies. These channels plausibly contribute, although the figures cannot settle the split between fresh inflows and revaluation. Morocco’s close trade links with Europe and its managed exchange-rate framework, anchored to a euro-dollar basket, make currency valuation particularly relevant; they do not establish the composition of its reserves.

The source of the increase changes the kind of protection it provides. Tourism, remittances and exports can replenish reserves repeatedly, though each is exposed to shifts in overseas demand or incomes. Foreign borrowing provides usable currency today but creates repayment obligations, so the improvement in the country’s net external position is smaller than the gross reserve gain suggests. Valuation gains also have economic value: appreciated assets can be sold or mobilised. But those gains can reverse, and gold is less immediately usable for routine payments than liquid foreign-currency balances.

For fuel importers, food distributors and manufacturers buying overseas components, a larger liquid buffer would reduce the risk of disrupted foreign payments during a shock. Households could benefit if smoother currency management limits imported price pressures. The authorities would also have more room to absorb weaker European demand, interrupted tourism receipts or a drought-driven rise in food imports without an abrupt adjustment in domestic spending.

The reserve increase therefore points to stronger gross protection, not proof that Morocco can comfortably meet every external claim. Its adequacy depends on import bills, near-term foreign debt repayments and the liquidity of the assets held. The next checks are reserve-composition disclosures, valuation-adjusted changes, central-bank foreign-exchange purchases and external borrowing. Continued accumulation supported by recurring earnings would be more reassuring than an equally large rise driven mainly by market prices or new debt.

Analysis by MENACodex. The reasons and effects discussed are our reading; every figure traces to official data.